Today's Nifty 21.08.2009

"Life is like riding a bicycle, To keep your balance you must keep moving". -Einstein.

Just like steady bicycle, keep one step ahead and one backward. Our market also ride the bicycle. Market gave gap up opening on first day then same gap down second day and again gap up on third day. This continue almost four to five days.

Rains are also rude on us as august also gone and still we are thirsty. Global ques are firm. Commodity linked stocks are boosted in European market. US decline the increase in jobless claim data. Asian markets are quiet pretty mix. So don't be adventurous in trading session as I not assume to we go more up or down than half percent . The sentiment is good although we facing stuff resistance on 4700 on nifty.

On technical basis chart suggest some side ways movement with flag and penaut pattern is witnessed. Lower highs and lower bottom suggest some steady medium term down trend. So I can say that on upper side we limited at 4650 to 4700 range while 4305-4359 is the Fibonacci retracement level which gives us some support on down side.

Today's Nifty 18/08/2009

An opinion should be the result of thought, not a substitute for it.- Jef Mallet
WELCOME BACK after long time of break... I apologize to all my readers and dear trader that I can't return on time.
Let's move to world market, After some range bound trade all the market going down with high volatality led by CHINA market. Japan's growth result is disappointing. Consumer growth from US is give signal to remain cautious.
On local front the rain god is not happy on north India. IIP data give some boost. On paper the economy has steady slow upward direction. While real economy has some problem still there. Inflation number is negative but in food and grain market it's climbing to pick. Good first q2q results from Indian Inc. is the surprise in this global slow down.
Let's Enjoy the market....

Today's Nifty 10/07/2009

"Just because you are blind, and unable to see my beauty doesn't mean it does not exist."- Margaret Cho.

Our ignorance is the curtain which is lies ahead of us. Just The writer said it doesn't mean it does not exist.

Today the IT giant INFY's result is better than expected. Some of the mix news flow can lead us more volatility. Some bad news from PSU's end like NTPC hide the liabilities in first quarter result. Monsoon is really not get full flow in northern India.

Major Asian market's are trading with gain. US indices got minor gain on last night. So cautious start in India is expected. Some bounce back from lower level in last two days are just the technical. New lows make me more cautious about long positions. Some mid caps and small caps got reversal in last session.

On the long term we are still in good race but for shorter term i think we are in under performer from Asia.

Nifty Chart after Budget

Just check the technical level your self...Major averages making mix trend..Long term averages are getting higher while Nifty struggling to hold on higher level. After decent correction on budget day now I assume that it may sustain near it's 50 day moving average.

Today's Nifty 30/06/2009

"Anyone who can handle a needle convincingly can make us see a thread which is not there". - E. H. Gombrich

Try to learn how to handle the needle? And you can see the thread which is not there.....Yes Here Needle means your positions or your emotions!! Handle it and your road to target is clear means the thread which is not there.

Last three to four day's quite undeceive for Indian bourses. As all the day we get handsome gain but last half hour ruined it dramatically. Big event ahead makes this for trader to decide where to go? Nifty keep going after touch the recent low of 4156, and continue to end positive after that. Positive momentum and value buying on budget expectation is help to nifty go up. Budget is very important for India after the government election, as it will be decide the next five year growth criteria.

Today major of the Asian indices are trading with gain and Us indices also shut shop higher. monsoon spread all over the india. This good sign will give the bust in early trades.

Today's Nifty 29/06/2009

"In life we don’t get what we want, we get in life what we are. If we want more we have to be able to be more, in order to be more you have to face rejection."- Farrah Gray.

On fundamental basis we get that on the board. I assume that we are far ahead than fundamental so beware long term investors, as big event ahead if you can lock healthy profit than do it before the budget. I personnaly feel that the euphora is over done during the last month and it will be cooled off after some time. As new price range is built now for all the stocks. New support resistance level on technical basis are now clear so we can get buying on lower level but not expect more bull run for sort term. Next budget is the juncture where we don't want to trap on either side, so just seat and enjoy. Don't jump immediately after the budget, wait for market to decide where it want to go.

On today firm positive openning is likely as global clues suggest that. Pre budget rally may start on this week and we may get higher end of the week ahead. Revise your port folio for next year after budget.

Today's Nifty 26/06/2009

"No one can be right all of the time, but it helps to be right most of the time."- Robert Half

How anyone can be right all of the time?? And expiry did wrong all of the analyst. No support from euroe yesterday and some hasitation from monsoon drag the indices down. No good news from local front add some fuel to selling all the day. After good start we lose all the gain. Last two trading session provide lot's of selling from across the board. FII is still avoid buying is the main reason here.

Yesterday I said that the profit booking is advisable still I say it. US indices get some gain after some clueless trading for last week. Major asian market are trading mix. It's give some gain in early trade of the day. Government's announcement about 'above normal' to 'below normal' for monsoon is the main concern for tradres.

Today's Nifty 25/06/2009

"We don't always get to choose what we love."- Scott Westerfeld.

Yes, we can't get to choose what we love, as we love to move market on our forecast. Market also gives us the sign of our forecast immediately. But after that we just wait and wait for our targeted movement. Time synchronization with our forecast is most important for any analyst either on fundamental or technical. No one gives the time limit for their forecast is really bad for beginner.

Now move on our market, after decent short covering yesterday closing is healthy for indian indices. But no analyst said that this is the new trend for Nifty. And today they all said that if we breack 4350-4360 than it's new trend. But I assume that if we breck out this level in today's trade than we are again in negative trend. Book profit in your long position atleast 50% is advisable.

Major asian market are trade with gain. Fourth quarter result of ONGC is disappointing. Today's inflation data and expiry all this clues suggesting only volatality nothing else.

Today's Nifty 24/06/2009

"Slow down and enjoy life. It's not only the scenery you miss by going too fast - you also miss the sense of where you are going and why."- Eddie Cantor.

Last some weeks we going so fast that the correction is needed. But now all the correction all the upside both we seen. Now what?? Can we miss the goal where we go and why? So just we slow down last week and now we enjoy the scenery.

Yesterday's pull back is just the short covering from heavy weights. RIL and ONGC both are the leader in indices. On the expiry volatality is natural and we seen it yesterday. Pull back is seen all across the board. We expected some more upside in shorter term. Atleast 4300-4450 level is where we seen the expiry of current future contract.

Global clues are positive today. Monsoon also get some rytheme in west coast of india. All this issue can help today to get going yesterday's upside. Taiwan weighted surge with more than 2%. and major asian market are trading in green. Today we assume Nifty to touch the 4350. Yesterday's low is the crucial level for us to medium term.

Today's Nifty 23/06/2009

"The world is wide, and I will not waste my life in friction when it could be turned into momentum".- Frances Willard

The action and reaction is what we seen in this market. Overdone euphoria is now meltdown to oversold position in all across the board. Technically we are in negative trend now and the rally is just the bear market bounce. But this is not the final for us as we are one of the emerging market where global crisis had not anticipating so much comparing to developed market.

Last four to five session is really bad for the trader and investors. All the stocks corrected more than 20% from there recent picks, so it's the time for swing traders to enter in short term. Mind that the global crisis revival is start and join it when it will slowdown. and if you join it when it will in full speed you will be thrown.

Last trading session for US indices is really bad as it's corrected more than 2%. Major Asian markets are trading with large loss. Today negative openning is what expected and choppy market after decent correction. But on expiry note some volatality is expected.